Take Me Back to the “Good Ole Days”
At the 2013 University of Georgia Timberland Investment Conference, Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources Dean Michael Clutter opened the proceedings by stating, “We are in the fifth year of saying it’s going to be better next year.”
Dr. Clutter was referring to the depressed timber market following the 2008 global recession. Sharp declines in housing starts immediately reduced demand for lumber, sending ripple effects throughout the forest industry supply chain. The result was dramatic: sawtimber stumpage prices fell to roughly half of their pre-recession value.
Today, halfway through 2026, we could argue we’re now in the eighteenth year of saying, “Maybe it will be better next year.”
The reality may be that sawtimber stumpage prices are unlikely to return to pre-2008 levels anytime soon.
Since 2021, contractions in the pulp and paper industry have further strained an already challenging forest economy. Deferred harvests, reduced housing demand, and the ongoing “wall of wood” continue to keep supply and demand out of balance.
So where should landowners look for optimism?
A Lesson from Agriculture
We don’t have to look far to find an example of innovation overcoming stagnant markets.
Consider corn production.
In the 1960s, before modern corn hybrids became widely available, average yields were approximately 60 bushels per acre. By the 1990s, after decades of genetic improvement, farmers routinely averaged 140 bushels per acre. Today, average production approaches 200 bushels per acre.
What’s even more remarkable is that corn prices today are roughly similar to what they were decades ago.
Farmers aren’t generating more income because commodity prices dramatically increased. They’re generating more income because genetics and management practices allow them to produce significantly more on the same acre.
The same principle applies to forestry.
Looking Back at Yesterday’s Value
I attend many meetings throughout the year, and one topic consistently dominates conversations: the timber market.
The challenges are real, and meaningful solutions may not emerge in the near future. As an industry, we often find ourselves waiting and hoping for market conditions to improve.
What is discussed less frequently is where many of those highly profitable pre-recession timber sales originated.
Many of those stands were natural forests or plantations established in the 1970s. If planted, they were often established with first-generation seedlings and limited site preparation. Lower productivity, poorer stem form, higher disease incidence, and increased stem forking were common because tree improvement programs were still in their infancy.
Image 1: These stands demonstrate how genetics and market conditions can influence outcomes. One stand was established with limited genetic improvement during a period of strong sawtimber prices, while the other benefited from advanced genetic improvement despite facing less favorable market conditions.
In many cases, at least half of the planted trees would ultimately become pulpwood (Burkhart and Bredenkamp 1989).
Yet landowners still generated strong timber sale revenues because sawtimber prices were exceptionally high.
In many ways, those high prices masked the productivity limitations of the era. Foresters and landowners simply did not have access to today’s advanced silvicultural practices and genetic tools, including MCP® seedlings.
Looking back, landowners benefited from a market environment that compensated for limitations in productivity and genetics.
The Genetics–Market Paradox
The relationship between price and productivity creates an interesting paradox.
Historically, stands established with first- and second-generation genetics and minimal site preparation commonly averaged 5 to 6 tons per acre per year in Mean Annual Increment (MAI). A significant portion of that volume often remained pulpwood even at final harvest.
By comparison, stands established during the late 2000s using mechanical and chemical site preparation along with MCP® genetics frequently average 9 to 11 tons per acre per year. In many of these stands, the majority of lower-value pulpwood is removed during the first thinning, leaving a larger percentage of sawtimber-producing stems for final harvest.
Landowners have little control over timber prices.
They do, however, have significant control over the two factors that most influence future productivity:
- Silviculture
- Genetics
When those two levers are optimized, the impact can be substantial.
In fact, a landowner utilizing minimal site preparation and lower-performing genetics would likely need pre-2008 stumpage prices to generate returns comparable to what many landowners can achieve today using advanced genetics and modern silvicultural practices.
Taking Back Control
As Fox et al. (2007) noted, genetics remains one of the final frontiers for continuously improving forest productivity.
For decades, ArborGen has focused on developing MCP® families designed to maximize the traits that create more sawtimber and greater value, including:
- Increased volume growth
- Improved stem straightness
- Enhanced disease resistance
- Reduced stem forking
This commitment to total quality helps position landowners to succeed regardless of market conditions.
While no one can control timber prices, landowners can control the quality of the seedlings they plant and the silvicultural decisions they make.
The result is greater flexibility, greater optionality, and ultimately greater control over future outcomes.
The “good old days” may not be coming back. Fortunately, today’s genetics and management tools are creating opportunities that previous generations of landowners never had.
Literature Cited
Burkhart and Bredenkamp. 1989. Product class proportions for thinned and un-thinned loblolly pine plantations. Southern Journal of Applied Forestry. 13(4): 192-195.
Fox, T., E. Jokela, and H.L. Allen. 2007. The development of pine plantation silviculture in the southern United States. Journal of Forestry. 105(7): 337-347.
Jason Watson
ArborGen Director of US Sales
Jason Watson is the Director of U.S. Sales at ArborGen. With extensive experience in reforestation and forest management, he helps landowners make informed decisions that support long-term forest productivity and value.
